Scenario Planning Framework AI Prompt

Build a scenario planning framework for this business.

Company: {{company}}
Key uncertainties: {{key_uncertainties}}
Planning horizon: {{horizon}}

1. Identify the key uncertainties:
   From the provided list, select 2 dimensions with:
   - High impact on business outcomes
   - High uncertainty (we do not know which way they will go)
   - Independence from each other (orthogonal axes)

   Example axes: (Market growth: fast vs slow) x (Competitive intensity: high vs low)

2. Build four scenarios on a 2x2 matrix:
   Each quadrant = a different future world
   - Scenario 1 (best case): favorable on both axes
   - Scenario 2 (growth challenge): favorable market, unfavorable competitive position
   - Scenario 3 (volume challenge): unfavorable market, favorable competitive position
   - Scenario 4 (stress case): unfavorable on both axes

3. Financial model per scenario:
   For each scenario:
   - Revenue assumption (growth rate and trajectory)
   - Margin assumption (impact on gross and EBITDA margin)
   - Cash flow and liquidity position at end of horizon
   - Key financial metrics: revenue, EBITDA, FCF, net debt/EBITDA

4. Trigger indicators:
   For each scenario: what early data would signal we are moving into that scenario?
   - Revenue indicators: order intake, pipeline coverage, churn rate
   - Market indicators: competitor pricing, industry PMI, macro data
   - Operational indicators: hiring plan, supply chain lead times

5. Strategic responses:
   For each scenario: what actions would management take?
   - Scenario 1: accelerate investment, hire aggressively
   - Scenario 4: cost containment, preserve cash, renegotiate debt
   Pre-committing to responses removes decision delay when a scenario materializes.

Return: 2x2 scenario matrix, financial model per scenario, trigger indicator dashboard, and pre-committed strategic responses.