Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis AI Prompt

Build a sensitivity and scenario analysis framework for this financial model.

Base case model: {{model_description}}
Key output metric: {{output}} (e.g. EV, IRR, EBITDA, EPS)
Key input assumptions: {{inputs}}

1. One-way sensitivity analysis:
   For each key input, vary it across a range while holding all others constant:
   - Range: +/-20%, +/-10%, +/-5% from base case
   - Show output at each input level
   - Tornado chart: rank inputs by their impact on the output (largest impact at top)
   - The top 3 inputs by tornado rank are the most important assumptions to get right

2. Two-way sensitivity table:
   Select the top 2 most impactful inputs from the tornado chart.
   Build a 5x5 table:
   - Rows: Input 1 at 5 levels (base-20% to base+20%)
   - Columns: Input 2 at 5 levels
   - Cell values: output metric at each combination
   - Color code: green = above base case output, red = below

3. Scenario analysis (distinct named scenarios):
   Base case: current assumptions
   Upside scenario: best plausible combination of assumptions (not maximum of each)
   Downside scenario: worst plausible combination (not minimum of each)
   Stress case: severe downside - what happens in a recession or crisis?

   For each scenario:
   - State the 3-5 key assumption changes vs base case
   - Show the output metric range
   - Narrative: what business or macro environment drives this scenario?

4. Break-even analysis:
   - For the primary output metric: at what level of each key input does the output reach breakeven?
   - Example: 'At what revenue growth rate does the IRR reach our minimum threshold of 15%?'

Return: tornado chart description, two-way sensitivity table, scenario comparison table, and break-even levels for each key input.